The Need for ‘IFP’ in a Multipolar World

IN A changing world order, from a unipolar to a multipolar world, it is not enough to pursue an ‘independent foreign policy’ (IFP) per se, which, in reality, is primarily more of a “balancing act” between China and the US concerning the geopolitical realities and challenges the Philippines and the world at large are facing.

As a country, the Philippines needs a genuine and authentic independent foreign policy in every sense and this would mean complete neutrality and positioning itself as non-aligned.

This could be done by downgrading or abrogating the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), and the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). This means rejecting outright alignment with the US.

Such action allows Manila to strike more leverage with China because the apprehension of military encirclement by Washington is a top concern of China in the South China Sea (SCS).

Likewise, the Philippines should draw lessons from its World War 2 experience. The Philippines was invaded by Japan not because it was at war with Japan.

The country was invaded by Japan precisely because it was home to the largest US military installation outside America. As a consequence, the Philippines became a battleground of the war between Japan and the US in the same manner that Ukraine is the battleground and the proxy in the ongoing Russia – US-led NATO full-blown proxy war.

In contemporary times, we have a similar situation. The country is hosting foreign military facilities (bases) and soldiers. The Americans have boots on the ground and military facilities because of EDCA.

At the moment, there are US bases across the Philippines, namely Subic Bay Naval Base, Basa Air Base, Fort Magsaysay, Antonio Bautista Air Base, Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base, and Lumbia Air Base. They’re near or on the SCS, significantly enhancing the US military’s ability to challenge Beijing there.

Foreign Military Base in Mindanao?

On another note, an article published on the Mindanao Cross on 23 April 2022, and republished on MaritimeNews on 4 May 2022 entitled “Say No to Foreign Military Base In Mindanao” by Yonax Gutierrez narrates the opposition of the Ranao Youth Council saying that it did not want the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARM) to “end up the host” to the convergence of foreign military bases.

The article pointed out that the Muslim youth organization already held different protests against foreign troops present in Mindanao. The said Muslim youth group even expressed concerns that any conduct of multinational military exercises within the territory of Bangsamoro could stir security peril in a fragile local peace situation in Mindanao.

Unfortunately, accordingly, both the government and civil society did not pay much attention to this important issue.

The said article further indicated that based on news reports, the Australian military intelligence unit already put up a military forward base inside the Zamboanga Philippine military camp with the assistance of its Philippine counterpart.

Moro peace advocates urged the Bangsamoro government to be vigilant of the existence of foreign troops in Mindanao. Accordingly, the presence of foreign troops caused anxiety among local Muslim communities.

Conclusion

The possibility or the reality that the Philippines has opened further its military facilities to the US and other foreign forces like the Australian military as stated by the article published in Mindanao Cross and MaritimeNews is somewhat bothersome and worrisome.

Thus, the new administration under the leadership of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. must assess and look into these matters with much prudence and reservation.

Likewise, the current administration must take into consideration that the 1987 Constitution prohibits the existence of foreign military bases and troops in Philippine territory.

Moreover, Filipinos should also reflect if indeed a military treaty with the US is still needed by the Philippines.

The original rationale behind the crafting of the MDT was to guard against a rearmed Japan after World War II, with the Soviet Union as the convenient secondary threat because of the Cold War. But such threats are gone now.

Take note, the existing PH-US MDT, EDCA, and the VFA have a lot of infirmities, lopsided and skewed provisions favorable more to the US than to the Philippines that need to be revisited and reassessed.

These agreements are antitheses in the pursuit of a genuinely independent foreign policy and non-aligned stance of the country.

Above all, the country should draw lessons from the experience of Ukraine. Ukraine is now a pawn in the geopolitical maneuvers of the US because of its strategic geographical location in the same manner that the Philippines might end up a pawn or a proxy of the US and its Western allies to counter the rise of China should war or a military confrontation breaks out in the Asia/Indo-Pacific region. Such a scenario will be most precarious for the Philippines.

Hence, the leaders of the country must be prudent in how they will position the Philippines amidst this ever-volatile, challenging, and changing world order and geopolitical realities.

Likewise, the country should transition its military relations with other countries from military alliances to military cooperation with countries in ASEAN and the wider Asia Pacific even with China, while championing the country’s national interests and ASEAN Centrality.

Most importantly, the Philippines should rather focus and concentrate on its own economic and social development and must avoid anything that will disrupt its quest toward genuine development and economic success and prosperity.