Don’t say you were not warned

(Editor’s Note: The following is the September 28, 2024 column of Mr. Rod Kapunan at the Manila Standard that we are reprinting here due to its relevance in the current geopolitical situation and with the author’s permission).

INTERNATIONAL news agency, Reuters, headlined the spectacular, and some sensed was an alarming development: “China’s PLA conducts rare publicize test launch of intercontinental ballistic missile.”

It was aimed at a predetermined area of the Pacific Ocean, flying over key allies of the United States, Japan and the Philippines, sending a message now reverberating across the world (the missile test took place last September 25, 2024—Editor).

It was a rare publicized “test” because it is only now that China needed to send a loud message in the subtle Confucian way without saying, “you are forewarned.” It carried a dummy warhead this time but, the message was very clear even to dummies.

The Pacific is the direction to the U.S. and the missile’s flight path necessarily crosses the general air space of key U.S. allies in the First Island Chain – including the Philippines.

To get a perception of a third-party observer, I reviewed various international news coverage of China’s ICBM test, the Hindustan (India) described it as “China’s First-in-40-Years Missile Test A Pre-War Message to West?”

It is the general view of the global media watching this, that it is China’s message to those provoking it with the now constant barrage of provocations; that is, the U.S. and its few Asian allies, particularly Japan and, lately, the bellicose and even more aggressive Philippine government.

China has persistently tried to talk diplomatic sense into Philippine foreign policy dealings it has with the Philippines… but how can any sensible party deals sanely with a country that cannot speak with one voice or make up its own mind, always snapping to the whip wielded by the United States of America.

The Philippines, in a short span of 27 months of the present government starting June of 2022 to September of 2024, has transformed from its president affirming the country’s independent foreign policy in his speech in his state visit to China in January 2023 in front of President Xi Jinping, to a restoration of the colonial-vassal state of the United States of America and installing U.S. Intermediate Range missiles and launchers aimed at China.

Under the cover of mutual defense military exercises, the U.S. transferred Typhon missile launchers for military exercises in April 2024, but the missiles and launchers stayed on after the military drills.

Not only did Filipinos raise alarm about the lingering presence of the missiles but even Russia in the words of its president Putin in July who noted that the U.S. missiles “was announced… are in the Philippines…” and would put it under Russia’ nuclear cross hairs.

China Daily, one of the English dailies of the Chinese state media, in April 2024 reacted with the headline “US missiles in Philippines cast ‘black day’ for Asia-Pacific.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly issued statements of concerns since the month the U.S. deployed these missiles, and the Armed Forces of the Philippine felt compelled to issue assurances and in July, its spokesperson Col. Louie Dema-ala announced that the missiles would return to the U.S. by September “as per plan.”

When September came, another bewildering reversal of policy ensued. On September 20, 2024, National Security Adviser Eduardo Año is quoted on an earlier Reuters report and confirming as the story headlined, “Philippines eyes future missile launchers purchase, to retain US Typhon system.”

This naturally makes the Philippines a laughingstock of the world and Año, the chief clown, but AFP chief Romeo Brawner, Jr. says later “I would like to have the Typhons here forever…”

China has persistently tried to talk diplomatic sense into Philippine foreign policy dealings it has with the Philippines, hence the official diplomatic channel of the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) has been instituted and convened for the tenth time of talks over the problems between the two countries,

But how can any sensible party deals sanely with a country that cannot speak with one voice or make up its own mind, always snapping to the whip wielded by the United States of America.

So, this time China spoke with a very rare publicize ICBM test aimed in the direction of America, crossing over the air sphere of Japan and the Philippines, and splashing down in a designated spot of the Pacific Ocean to have its ripples radiate east, west, north and south.

If the Philippines still won’t comprehend the message, then it can only hope to have better luck than Ukraine and Bongbong Marcos get a better ending to Zelensky’s when the time comes.