Decoding PM Modi’s Operandi

A RECENT regional event bears significant implications for our all Asian nations after two of its “giants”– China and India– had a border clash last May 5, 2020, that caused casualties on both sides and now firing up rage and rancor in India.

Surprisingly, in an act of supreme statesmanship, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at an all-party crisis meeting of all Indian political parties on the clash at the border region of Ladakh stated:

“Neither have they intruded (Chinese troops) into our border, nor has any post been taken over by them (China). Twenty of our jawans (soldiers) were martyred, but those who dared Bharat Mata (Mother India), they were taught a lesson…”

Analyzing this statement with cold objectivity, it becomes clear that Modi was not blaming the Chinese side of any violation of India’s Line-of-Actual-Control (LAC), and it implied by its selective silence some responsibility on the Indian military side. The Indian military could very well justify itself, the Galwan Valley being a disputed area though occupied by China at many points.

Within twenty days, India and China’s Special Representatives on the China-India Boundary Question, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval spoke by phone and issued a press release on having reached “positive common understandings” and easing the current border situation, and denying the West the relishing thought of a conflict spinning out of control.

But what few are discussing is the shadow of the U.S. lurking in the background of the events in the China-India border issue.

I refer to some writing of M. K. Bhadrakuma, a former Indian diplomat and a superb geopolitical analyst who writes in the Indian Punchline and Asia Times, who cannot be faulted for his dissection of the event as he is an Indian with a thoroughly objective assessment, as you will see.

In his most recent article, Bhadrakuma reacted to the India-China clash in Ladakh with this title, “US lobbyists set the Indian narrative on China border”.

In the article he implies that the incident at the Ladakh leading to the clash was a purely military decision devoid of any inputs from the Indian top political leadership while the political and media narrative is being primed by the U.S.:

“… New Delhi’s decision which was announced on June 19 that the Indian Army has been given the freedom to take necessary steps along the border —and not to limit the ability of commanders of frontline troops to take whatever action they deem necessary on the Line of Actual Control on the Chinese border — becomes debatable.

“Detractors of the government flippantly interpreted this decision as an evasive action by PM Modi to ‘pass the buck’ to the military if something untoward happened. But the point is, military must be held firmly responsible and accountable for its actions…”

The lines suggest PM Modi allowing the military to finish and complete what it started and really puts the onus on the military, and not unless the military wants to push it further, Modi would take the course that his Special Representative Ajit Doval has completed with his counterpart Wang Yi.

The Western allies salivated at the prospects of the deterioration of the China-India relations and border issues. Their headlines reflect this: Foreign Policy magazine, “The Galwan Killings Are the Nail in the Coffin for China and India’s Relationship”; Strafor, “In India, Anti-China Anger Will Bring Out Modi’s Hawkish Side”; Al Jazeera, “China is so fixed on the US, it may lose India,” ad nausea.

The lesson for the Philippines in Modi’s Operandi

The Philippines is under pressure from US-lead Western machinations in disputes over territory in the South China Sea, although the Philippines has done its best in negotiating with China and achieving very favorable concessions like the 60/40 oil and gas deal in the Reed Bank – plus the tens of billions of already delivered infrastructure project and COVID-19 aid.

But increased U.S. provocations in the South China Sea may give way to a “false flag” incident leading to blaming China and to rally other countries to its side.

U.S aircrafts carrier intrusions at the Taiwan Straits used to be once a year; now it’s once every month. As in India, the U.S. tentacles reach many unseen places . In the Philippines, this is especially true in our Navy.

This is what we have to be on the lookout for. Let’s not fall into a trap.